One can sense it, the slow drumbeat of another war. In the past two weeks the military-intelligence-government complex has been building up a new case against Iran. A confrontation with Iran seems inevitable when one looks at the way the story is being built-up in the media, especially the news deprived 24\7 network channels.
It could be a war or a swift and precise bombing of key installations in Iran. The truth being a full scale war with Iran will be unacceptable to the USA at a time when the extrapolated cost of the Iraq quagmire is touching a senseless 1 Trillion dollars and the fact being Iran is no Iraq.
The war in Iraq was a success in meeting the short term goals of the US,
1. Checkmating Iraq's firepower - Especially the Scud threat against Israel
2. Unseating the Saddam regime and a cleanup of the Baath-Sunni oligarchy
But in a war with Iran, what would be the short term goals,
1. Taking out Iran's nuclear capablity - this will not be easy, given the fact that Atomic installations in Iran are geographically wide-spread and high in count.
2. Unseating the regime - Iran is a functioning democracy and even in their wildest dreams, the US will not be thinking about this.
3. Containing Iran's reaction - will be tough. Iran could go on a rampage in the Persian Gulf and across the middle-east if it is hit. Iran has the firepower to accomplish that and the American forces in Iraq and rest of the middle-east will be sitting ducks despite any ramp up the US intends to and is perhaps currently doing in the Persian Gulf.
Going into a war with Iran has two critical reasons against it,
1. American public opinion - which a propaganda campaign over a period of time may perhaps be able to change
2. World opinion - which asks this Question, but which, if Iraq is any example the current establishment does not really care about
Despite this why would the US make this mistake perhaps in another year or two - the answer is, the conservative right which has placed George Bush and Dick Cheney in charge of the country will not let them go back home without doing something about Iran. There is not much of a choice here and the way things are piling up, it is surely going their way. It may not happen soon, but there is another 'solid' two years left in the Bush Presidency.
Before the bombing starts, lets take a minute off to see what Iran (which has not invaded a country in the past one hundred years) looks like. After the bombing we'll be left with rubble, like Afghanistan and Iraq, it is in the nature of bombs.
P.S : Per the state of the Union did you hear about yesterday's "Valentine's Day Massacre"
P.P.S : Take a look at the 2008 Budget Request (courtesy : RoseCoveredGlasses)
It could be a war or a swift and precise bombing of key installations in Iran. The truth being a full scale war with Iran will be unacceptable to the USA at a time when the extrapolated cost of the Iraq quagmire is touching a senseless 1 Trillion dollars and the fact being Iran is no Iraq.
The war in Iraq was a success in meeting the short term goals of the US,
1. Checkmating Iraq's firepower - Especially the Scud threat against Israel
2. Unseating the Saddam regime and a cleanup of the Baath-Sunni oligarchy
But in a war with Iran, what would be the short term goals,
1. Taking out Iran's nuclear capablity - this will not be easy, given the fact that Atomic installations in Iran are geographically wide-spread and high in count.
2. Unseating the regime - Iran is a functioning democracy and even in their wildest dreams, the US will not be thinking about this.
3. Containing Iran's reaction - will be tough. Iran could go on a rampage in the Persian Gulf and across the middle-east if it is hit. Iran has the firepower to accomplish that and the American forces in Iraq and rest of the middle-east will be sitting ducks despite any ramp up the US intends to and is perhaps currently doing in the Persian Gulf.
Going into a war with Iran has two critical reasons against it,
1. American public opinion - which a propaganda campaign over a period of time may perhaps be able to change
2. World opinion - which asks this Question, but which, if Iraq is any example the current establishment does not really care about
Despite this why would the US make this mistake perhaps in another year or two - the answer is, the conservative right which has placed George Bush and Dick Cheney in charge of the country will not let them go back home without doing something about Iran. There is not much of a choice here and the way things are piling up, it is surely going their way. It may not happen soon, but there is another 'solid' two years left in the Bush Presidency.
Before the bombing starts, lets take a minute off to see what Iran (which has not invaded a country in the past one hundred years) looks like. After the bombing we'll be left with rubble, like Afghanistan and Iraq, it is in the nature of bombs.
P.S : Per the state of the Union did you hear about yesterday's "Valentine's Day Massacre"
P.P.S : Take a look at the 2008 Budget Request (courtesy : RoseCoveredGlasses)
13 comments:
Irani aid to the Iraqi Shias is, atleast in my opinion, an open secret. What is there to be shocked or to be declared with proof at this juncture? Hopefully the status quo remains, if it can't be improved, till next yr and the new President turns out to be little more sensible than Bush Jr.
The biggest issue is that even if a new president comes, he/she will find being haunted by the Iraqi ghost. Iran doesn't have a stand alone solution. If not peace, atleast the US retreival in Iraq is a prerequisite before hoping anything from Iran.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is an Irani version of Bush. If he doesn't want to acknowledge or entertain US meddling with Irani affairs, that is what he is supposed to do. But the means he chooses are far from being politically correct or cuducive for peace in the region. Of late, as per the media, there is a faction in democratic Iran that wants to check Ahmadinejad's foreign policy wrt US. Let us hope for the best.
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$481 b for defense and $40 b for veteran benefits????? Considering the "irippu vasam" Bush Jr has with the terrorists (as he calls them), next year they might allot the amount for his personal security when he rests at home.
One more thing - do we hear anything from Ban Ki Moon's army? If nuclear Iran isa threat to US security, it is a potential threat to everyone else. Now if the are saying that it is right of the US to poke nose at Iraq, Iran, N Korea, Somalia and evry other corner of the world, why do we need a UN?
~NJ
yes, knew this was coming. time for more diversionary tactics. afghanisthanineyum iraqineyum oru vazhikkakki kazhinjappol, adutha vaalu pokki thudangi. i saw this t-shirt somewhere with the pics of bush sr. and jr. captioned dumb and dumber. shouldn't that read dangerous and more dangerous? kaashu veruthe kalayaanundenkil nammude naattinu kurachu kodukkaan parayu. avide b'lore- il halfway nikkunna flyovers enkillum poorthiyaakatte. (avide kaashillathathinte prashnam alla ariyaam athennaalum ennum...)but what to do, marunninennu paranjaal......... vargamalle? (poorippikkaan ariyaamallo ?:)))
Nina, All is not lost here. USA and Iran as I said are functioning and strong democracies. Both are products of revolutions which are rooted in progressive values. There will be ppl like Neo-cons in US and Ahmadinejad, didn't we have Murli manohar joshi for five years, but there are checks and balances - the left has an upper hand in US now, the Ayatollahs and the liberal Iranians dont buy into what Nejad says *there is a strong backlash against him in Iran, same with Bush in US - what can you say abt a Prez with a 30% approval*. Nejad might be a hero in the Arab world, but he has to win elections in Iran right ? whats Advani doing now ?
UN continues to be very important despite all the criticism. I see its role based on the fact that the planet has never seen anything as powerful as the fifty united states of A.
Alakanda, aa pani theeratha palam evideyo kondu :) - i was living next to it. Bush, anti christ annu - ARIYAMO :)))
pani theeratha ethu paalathinte chottilayirunu? avide angane kure undallo...
so bush is the anti christ now? he's taken on the post since saddam vacated it? nice going!
SOmehow I feel, UN might end up as a rubber stamp if the new leader doesn't take control. If pulled out of Somalia too letting US have its way. And what role did they have in the N Korea settlement 2 days back.
Why do they exists if conflicting nations can always find a way out without their help.
~NJ
wats this bush and anti-christ thing??
~NJ
Hope the rest of the world DOES something rather than just VOICE their disagreement!
A war with Iran is almost an impossibility. Bush is just beating the drums because he needs a scapegoat for the time being. But there's no way he's going to get Congress approval for it and no conceivable military strategy.
Alakananda, hehe...you got to have someone right :))
Nina, UN comes into picture when conflicting nations cannot find their way out. Oh, the evangelicals over here in US will have a person ordained as anti-christ - clear and present danger - you'll get it :)
Alex, there is quite a lot that France,Russia,China, UK and India are doing to avoid a conflict. But the major opposition to a war is from within the US itself.
Abhilash, I do agree.But congressional approval is for a war. What if US forces start a hot-chase into Iranian territory starting next week. Or they build the euphoria and launch one off cruise strikes within Iran. That will be Bush's plan and as you said, I dont see an all out war here.
They are a bunch of lunatics.. rather can call them christian fanatcis. Please refer this link -(http://timmybrister.com/2007/02/12/go-and-sin-some-more-a-meditation-on-the-life-and-death-of-anna-nicole-smith/#comment-2728)
They have lodged all their principles of attaking and saving in accordance with bible. There are right-wingers who have authored a messianic novel which calls for the end of world with a massive war. Iran, russia, china and some countries on one end, America and Israel on other. It is a mire of christian fundamentalism and capitalism. Europe is so livid to take any kind of strong stance.
Now talk is all about Obama and what not. Nothing is going to revert whether obama or hillary comes. Things will remain the same and the usual grind about democracy which they were ranting for a long in Iraq will contimue.
They are a bunch of looneys addicted to consumerism and its after effects. What kind of scruples can you expect from a country which has legalised to do business with your body and film it?
who is left to fight? i am reminded of ur earlier post: iran and us-why cant they talk...even now there has been no meaningful dialogue taking place.
the us has been sulking ever since the shah was overthrown...they dont see iran as a democracy...from 1980-88 they got saddam to fight for them...now there is noone left to stand up to iran...this war is a certainty...it will begin as soon as the retreat from iraq is over.
all said...i'd like to see iran dispossessed of nuclear weapons or alternatively a tolerant form of islam at the helm in the middle-east.
Clash, thats a lot of anger :)) yes I've heard this theory, but the bottomline is Bush has more to do with conservative-money than any apocalyptic christian belief. The conservative America and Bush are no fools,they know there game pretty well. there was a world of change b\w Nixon and Carter. Despite its cruel hand, the USA has a lot of good in it, so with Iran. I believe what is right with America will prevail.
Jiby, US is not against any religion or race or anything. The only thing they ask for is obedience. If it was for democracy - Saudi should have gone first right. Saddam as you said is the best example, when he was obedient the US supported them with all its heart. See all the goodies India is getting. Let good sense prevail in Iran :)
Anger, yeah.. it is shimmering all over the world!!
But i dont understand the sense of some people who wants Iran to be disarmed, when Israel- a gross violator of human rights in middle east is allowed to do all its covert nuclear development programmes. If iran has a theocratic regime, america has a christian fundamentalist regime. It is very clear that Bush rowed to his victory with the backing or right wing fundamentalists and zionists. Anything you utter against Israel is termed as anti-semite remark!! That is a better way to avoid much of dialogues!
This war is a strangled last attempt at garnering the oil reserves around the world to run their cars! (America has 1.5 cars/person!!). China in a covert way has made good realtions in Africa, which will be a difficult coalition to break! Last year alone, 40% of international demand for oil came from china. It is a last and forlorn attempt at snatching the oil reserves in the middle east.
Afghanistan - another insignifciant place attacked on false charges doesnt not hold any importance on it own, but it is a gateway to the Post-USSR russin states endowed with good oil and natural gas supplies.
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