Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Iran and USA - why cant they talk ?

"One of President Bush’s daughters had her purse stolen while she was in Argentina. The big problem was his plan for Iraq was in the purse. Looks like we have to start all over." - Jay Leno

President Bush is in Europe. Today he visited the country of Estonia. He thanked them for sending troops to Iraq. His exact words were, "Those two guys are doing a good job.” - Conan Obrien

Jokes apart, the mood in the USA is one of despair, the civil war in Iraq has turned out to be the nations worst ever nightmare with comparisons to Vietnam and no easy way out. The news channels are flooded with casuality reports from Iraq and a mounting death toll of american soldiers. Lebanon is headed for another stint of instability, Jordan suspects an imminent Islamic outrage and to top it all Jerusalem is still burning - maybe Saudi is safe, but how safe. The writing on the wall is crystal clear - middle east has exploded and there is no way out. Hope is no more a strategy and despair is not a method. This is where Iran becomes very important.




Iran on its on will not destabilize the Persian gulf region. Iran is the only country that fought the Taliban militarily before 9/11. It has high stakes in the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and stability in the persian gulf as the country heavily depends on the crude oil trade in the region. USA as such has no leverage in the Shia world and normal relations with Iran will help reining in the Shia militias in Iraq and averting an impending apocalypse. It will also help in bringing normalcy in Lebanon where Hezbollah is answerable only to Iran. Syria will automatically fall in line. Now if we look at the map, the mid-east picture could change. Then why cant these guys talk ?

The differences and mistrust between USA and Iran are because of several reasons,

from USA's perspective it could be,

1. The Hostage crisis and its fallout in the American psyche
2. Iran's support for Hezbollah and Shia militias
3. Iran's overt statements and actions against Israel
4. Iran's aspiration for a state-controlled-capitalist economy defended by a nuclear arsenal
5. Overall threat perception in the media and intelligentsia

from Iran's side ,

1. Mossadegh's overthrow and Shah's installation
2. US's overt support of Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war
3. US's attempts to destabilize the Islamic republic
4. US's support of oppressive regimes in Saudi and Iraq
5. Palestine and the "Zionist" Israel supported by the US
6. Axis of Evil statements by the US after 9/11
7. US has virtually surrounded Iran - they are in the gulf, Iraq, Afghanistan and Armenia.Its quite obvious they want the bomb.


At the same time,

1. USA has destroyed Iran's enemy No 2 and 3, Saddam and the Taliban.
2. Al-qaeda is a threat to both countries, US and Shiite Iran
3. Iran and US want peace in the persian gulf
4. US investments in Iran could reduce its dependency on oil money
5. Iran's leverage in the region could possibly offset an instability in the Saud kingdom




The world we live in depends a lot on middle-east as you see in the picture. Iran,USA and the world at large stand to gain from direct talks between the two countries and normalcy in relationships. Iran will have to accept the state of Israel and end its diatribe against the Jewish state which is not helping anybody. USA will have to urgently workout a road-map for a Palestine state. The situation in Israel occupied territories of Palestine is very ugly and getting worse by the day. This one single issue is the primary political cause of terrorism in the region and the world's only super-power should show the spine to address it. Clinton did it, Bush messed up.

The point in starting a conversation is that a channel would be open between the two countries, there wouldn't be drastic steps from either side if talks are on, mutual mistrust will be cleared to a some extend and maybe Israel will start behaving. Iran will not risk ending a dialogue with the USA by making stupid statements like 'Death to America' or 'Nuke the Zionists'. This will pacify the tensions in middle-east to a large extend. Converse is the word on the street.

There have been media reports that the Bush administration may militarily target Iran's nuclear installations. That would be a bad move. Maybe Bush wants to use the WMDs he found in Iraq. Then again if Saddam had WMDs, Bush senior should be having the receipts, right ?


Iranian President's open letter to the American people was published today morning. The letter as usual has been trashed by the media here. But the american public has this unique habit of making their voices heard, like they did on Nov 7th when the Republican's were routed in both house and senate. Hope they will give peace a chance.

Good Night and Good Luck !

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Why is the Indian Muslim missing ?


The word on the street is "shock". If not the street, atleast in the power corridors of Delhi and the state capitals of India after the Sachar committee findings on the state of Muslims in India. The Rajinder Sachar panel appointed last year by the prime minister to report on the social, economic and educational status of the Muslim community has done a selective release of its findings. The PMO believes the findings are 'explosive'. The full report is scheduled to come out on Nov 30th.

"Across 12 states with an average Muslim population of 15.4 percent, only 6.4 percent of government employees are Muslim"

"In 15 states where Muslims average 17 percent of the population, they are 8 percent of the lower judiciary, which decides eight out of every 10 cases in the country."

"But prison is one place where
Muslims' proportional representation is higher than their population percentage.
In eight states where they average 14.82 percent of the population, they account for 23.4 percent of prison inmates."

"Although Muslims in jails were not part of the Sa
char Committee’s terms of reference, prison is the only place where they have been found to be over-represented"

Read Sivam Vij's excellent take on the issue in Tehelka

Is this a surprise ? Often it is the BJP and RSS that is blamed for the condition of muslims in India. But what about UP with an 18% muslim population and with a messiah called Mulayam Singh. Bihar - with Lalu Yadav, the JP secularist who jumps in front of raths to stop the rightwing-Hindu-juggernaut. What about West Bengal where the marxists are in power for the past thrity years. Then why is the Indian Muslim missing ?

It is education,stupid !




The gross under-representation of muslims in graduate and post-graduate enrollment , almost in lines of SCs and STs , shows that muslims fare below the OBCs who have quota reservations . The pathetic educational levels of Muslims in the 20-30 age groups is an indicator to why the Indian Muslim is missing from the corridors of power, from the civil services, from the judiciary and from land ownership. The Army, Navy and Air Force has given data , but had advised the panel against publishing it.

Equally alarming is the post 2002 "ghettoisation" of Muslims in Gujarat which is affecting the eduction of a lot of muslim children in the state. Creation of "muslim-free-zones" in the state will not help us in finding the missing muslim and bring him into the national mainstream.

What should be done now ?

Overturn the constitution and start reservation based on religion ?
Spend 15% of the budget for minority upliftment as suggested by the CPIM ?

Well lets wait out the full report.