Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Iran and USA - why cant they talk ?

"One of President Bush’s daughters had her purse stolen while she was in Argentina. The big problem was his plan for Iraq was in the purse. Looks like we have to start all over." - Jay Leno

President Bush is in Europe. Today he visited the country of Estonia. He thanked them for sending troops to Iraq. His exact words were, "Those two guys are doing a good job.” - Conan Obrien

Jokes apart, the mood in the USA is one of despair, the civil war in Iraq has turned out to be the nations worst ever nightmare with comparisons to Vietnam and no easy way out. The news channels are flooded with casuality reports from Iraq and a mounting death toll of american soldiers. Lebanon is headed for another stint of instability, Jordan suspects an imminent Islamic outrage and to top it all Jerusalem is still burning - maybe Saudi is safe, but how safe. The writing on the wall is crystal clear - middle east has exploded and there is no way out. Hope is no more a strategy and despair is not a method. This is where Iran becomes very important.




Iran on its on will not destabilize the Persian gulf region. Iran is the only country that fought the Taliban militarily before 9/11. It has high stakes in the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and stability in the persian gulf as the country heavily depends on the crude oil trade in the region. USA as such has no leverage in the Shia world and normal relations with Iran will help reining in the Shia militias in Iraq and averting an impending apocalypse. It will also help in bringing normalcy in Lebanon where Hezbollah is answerable only to Iran. Syria will automatically fall in line. Now if we look at the map, the mid-east picture could change. Then why cant these guys talk ?

The differences and mistrust between USA and Iran are because of several reasons,

from USA's perspective it could be,

1. The Hostage crisis and its fallout in the American psyche
2. Iran's support for Hezbollah and Shia militias
3. Iran's overt statements and actions against Israel
4. Iran's aspiration for a state-controlled-capitalist economy defended by a nuclear arsenal
5. Overall threat perception in the media and intelligentsia

from Iran's side ,

1. Mossadegh's overthrow and Shah's installation
2. US's overt support of Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war
3. US's attempts to destabilize the Islamic republic
4. US's support of oppressive regimes in Saudi and Iraq
5. Palestine and the "Zionist" Israel supported by the US
6. Axis of Evil statements by the US after 9/11
7. US has virtually surrounded Iran - they are in the gulf, Iraq, Afghanistan and Armenia.Its quite obvious they want the bomb.


At the same time,

1. USA has destroyed Iran's enemy No 2 and 3, Saddam and the Taliban.
2. Al-qaeda is a threat to both countries, US and Shiite Iran
3. Iran and US want peace in the persian gulf
4. US investments in Iran could reduce its dependency on oil money
5. Iran's leverage in the region could possibly offset an instability in the Saud kingdom




The world we live in depends a lot on middle-east as you see in the picture. Iran,USA and the world at large stand to gain from direct talks between the two countries and normalcy in relationships. Iran will have to accept the state of Israel and end its diatribe against the Jewish state which is not helping anybody. USA will have to urgently workout a road-map for a Palestine state. The situation in Israel occupied territories of Palestine is very ugly and getting worse by the day. This one single issue is the primary political cause of terrorism in the region and the world's only super-power should show the spine to address it. Clinton did it, Bush messed up.

The point in starting a conversation is that a channel would be open between the two countries, there wouldn't be drastic steps from either side if talks are on, mutual mistrust will be cleared to a some extend and maybe Israel will start behaving. Iran will not risk ending a dialogue with the USA by making stupid statements like 'Death to America' or 'Nuke the Zionists'. This will pacify the tensions in middle-east to a large extend. Converse is the word on the street.

There have been media reports that the Bush administration may militarily target Iran's nuclear installations. That would be a bad move. Maybe Bush wants to use the WMDs he found in Iraq. Then again if Saddam had WMDs, Bush senior should be having the receipts, right ?


Iranian President's open letter to the American people was published today morning. The letter as usual has been trashed by the media here. But the american public has this unique habit of making their voices heard, like they did on Nov 7th when the Republican's were routed in both house and senate. Hope they will give peace a chance.

Good Night and Good Luck !

9 comments:

Jiby said...

as far as i see the situation is lost...even if the dems come the paranoia that iran with nuclear weapons is a danger for us interests will not recede. iraq was the latest misadventure that america got into...seems like they need a vietnam and an iraq happening every 30 years to keep them reminded of how vulnerable they are.

man, watch this video...it is an uk MP blasting the us senate
http://youtube.com/watch?v=2W1FZWML6wA

Alex said...

True.

The conquest for power will never cease to be..sadly..

Great write up!

Oil means power.

Sachin R K said...

bvn...completely agree with you. If the Americans had any sense ( a debatable point ) they would be talking to Iran now. Personally I feel Iran is much more dependable than the Saudis or the Pakis . Even Bush wouldnt be fool enough to nuke Iran ( or would he? ) . That is one of the the plus points of the Democartic victory in the US Congress and Senate. Bush will no longer have the blank cheque to conduct his cowboy diplomacy.

b v n said...

Jiby, that was a power address by Galloway !! Neat.
chk this out,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svxNPHWvGoc
Maybe its a reminder for the US, but 100,000 people are dead because they were Iraqis, 2800 soldiers are dead because GW lied !!

Alex, Bill Clinton did not invade any country, Vajapayee didnt, Hu Jintao didnt...peace is not an aberration. Bastards are !

sachin, you agree ???? !!!...:))) I do agree that Iran is more dependable than any other country in the middle-east.

Rose, great viewpoint !! I have got confused whenever i've read about the Government-military-industry-intelligence complexes...its so HUGE...i couldnt get hold of the article but :)

Sachin R K said...

Wonders never cease, hey bvn? ;)

Check out an Iraq post I wrote.
http://sachin-ki-story.blogspot.com/2006/10/you-broke-it-you-fix-it.html

Disclaimer : unlike yours mine doesnt offer any solutions.

b v n said...

Sachin, did you see the link Jiby has given above..chk that out...its kinda summary of yr post in an emphatic way !

Sachin R K said...

Thanks jiby and bvn for the two video links. I had read the transcript of Galloway's speech at the US Senate before, but boy, watching it on video was something else.

Anonymous said...

http://www.chomsky.info/books/dissent01.htm

The link might make an interesting read.

NJ

neermathalam said...

Like credit rating..there should be a trust rating for countries...
and i would like to see how world nations will fare...
The trust factor is missing between Iran and US.
And neither of them are comaparable military powers..US going for talks with Iran..even for the sake of peace will be at the expense of its elephant sized Ego.I dont know how correct is to comapre nations to individuals.Does nations have Ego..??
But in the case of Iran the letter was indeed a news for me..
That also..I would liek to see in another perspective..Is the legacy theory right..Why are so much jews..in wall street..?Is it not thier..enemity to arabs, for which they give an economic angle..(brilliant minds find..great reasons for stupid moves...)and pushed...middle east to burn.
Without proofs we can only speculate...
but i think socio-religious sentiments weigh far more than economic equations when..corporations also look for short term gains..
World do lack a visionary...and elephat sized ego rule this roost which we call world..